SPM(SH:601900) Huajin Securities·2024-04-30 11:30Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate-A" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [3][4]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 9.365 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.35%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.284 billion yuan, up 34.39% year-on-year [3]. - In Q1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 2.088 billion yuan, a decline of 4.86% year-on-year, and a net profit of 152 million yuan, down 33.96% year-on-year, primarily due to fluctuations in the fair value of external investments and the cancellation of tax incentives [3]. - The company published 1,077 types of textbooks and 2,847 types of supplementary materials in 2023, with revenue from educational publishing reaching 2.821 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.3% [3]. - The company is transitioning from a single textbook publisher to a supplier of diversified product development and customized service solutions, actively developing after-school research and study service platforms [3][4]. - The "Digital South Transmission" development strategy is being implemented, enhancing the service capabilities of the "Guangdong Education Cloud Digital Textbook Application Platform," with over 43 million active users in the year [3]. Financial Performance Summary - The company forecasts revenues of 10.001 billion yuan, 10.678 billion yuan, and 11.396 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.022 billion yuan, 1.156 billion yuan, and 1.294 billion yuan [4][5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.14 yuan, 1.29 yuan, and 1.44 yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, with price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 13.1, 11.6, and 10.4, respectively [4][5]. - The company’s revenue from textbooks and supplementary materials is expected to be 8.955 billion yuan, 9.635 billion yuan, and 10.358 billion yuan for 2024 to 2026, with stable growth rates of 7.85%, 7.60%, and 7.50% [27]. Market Position and Competitive Analysis - The company is the only legal entity in Guangdong Province engaged in the distribution of primary and secondary school textbooks, which provides it with a unique and irreplaceable position in the market [19]. - Compared to peer companies, the company's projected EPS for 2024 and 2025 is significantly higher than the average of comparable companies, indicating a strong competitive advantage [19][20].