SDBH(SH:600966) Minsheng Securities·2024-04-30 12:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company with a current price of 5.76 yuan [6][8]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 18.693 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.80%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 20.27% to 1.82 billion yuan [15]. - In Q1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 4.398 billion yuan, a 5.69% increase year-on-year, driven by improved production capacity [15]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the white card paper industry and is expected to benefit from the new "plastic limit order" policy, with projected net profits of 8.79 billion yuan, 12.18 billion yuan, and 16.14 billion yuan for 2024-2026 [15]. Financial Forecasts and Key Metrics - Revenue projections for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E are 21.199 billion yuan, 24.785 billion yuan, and 28.771 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 13.4%, 16.9%, and 16.1% [9]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 879 million yuan in 2024E, 1.218 billion yuan in 2025E, and 1.614 billion yuan in 2026E, with corresponding growth rates of 383.6%, 38.5%, and 32.5% [9]. - The company's PE ratios for the forecasted years are 9X for 2024E, 6X for 2025E, and 5X for 2026E, indicating a favorable valuation trend [15]. Product and Market Analysis - The company’s revenue from various products in 2023 included 11.941 billion yuan from white paperboard, 4.245 billion yuan from cultural paper, and 1.832 billion yuan from boxboard, with respective year-on-year changes of -8.86%, +105.92%, and -11.16% [15]. - The company is focusing on product upgrades and has seen improvements in profitability, with a significant increase in cash flow from operations, which reached 2.119 billion yuan in 2024Q1, up 185.61% year-on-year [15].