2023年报&2024一季报点评报告：需求转弱业绩承压，静待政策加持下行业规范化机会

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Add" [4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 799 million yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 135 million yuan, a decrease of 5.42% year-on-year [2] - In Q1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 166 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 17.92%, and a net profit of 19 million yuan, down 46.94% year-on-year, indicating performance below expectations [2] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 7.00 yuan per 10 shares to all shareholders [2] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company experienced mixed revenue performance across its product lines, with beef products declining by 3.85% year-on-year, while lamb products saw a significant increase of 22.01% [3] - The gross margin for 2023 was 26.38%, slightly up by 2.30 percentage points year-on-year, while the gross margin for Q1 2024 was 25.00%, down by 1.21 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The net profit margin for 2023 was 16.95%, a decrease of 0.99 percentage points year-on-year, and for Q1 2024, it was 11.39%, down 6.23 percentage points year-on-year [3] Market Strategy and Industry Outlook - The company is actively expanding its direct sales channels, achieving a revenue growth of 25.58% year-on-year, while revenue from distribution channels fell by 23.16% [3] - The company announced a share buyback plan to enhance its long-term incentive mechanism, with a buyback amount between 25 million to 50 million yuan [3] - The recent regulatory notice from six departments aims to strengthen food safety supervision in the prepared food industry, which is expected to benefit leading companies like the one being analyzed [7] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 138 million yuan, 144 million yuan, and 154 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 1.60%, 4.50%, and 6.83% [11] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.00 yuan, 1.04 yuan, and 1.11 yuan for the same years, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 28, 27, and 25 [11]