贵州茅台24年一季报点评：

Investment Rating - Investment Rating: Buy (Maintain) [9] Core Views - The company successfully completed its "opening red" campaign, indicating stable operations and strong performance in Q1 2024 [9] - Revenue for Q1 2024 reached 46.485 billion yuan, an increase of 18.05% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 24.065 billion yuan, up 15.73% year-on-year [9] - The report anticipates that the company can handle fluctuations in the price of its flagship product, with continued upgrades in product structure and a robust performance expected throughout the year [9] Financial Performance and Forecast - Q1 2024 revenue and profit figures met market expectations, with a breakdown showing that both flagship and series products are developing synergistically [9] - The company expects revenue growth to be driven by early progress in distribution channels and an increase in factory prices, with a significant contribution from the zodiac quota [9] - The report maintains previous revenue forecasts for 2024-2026, projecting revenues of 174.51 billion, 201.52 billion, and 232.08 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.91%, 15.48%, and 15.17% [10] Profitability Metrics - The gross profit margin for Q1 2024 was 92.61%, remaining stable year-on-year, although a slight decline in net profit margin was noted due to changes in channel structure and tax confirmations [9] - The report highlights a strong cash collection performance, with cash receipts increasing by 29.3% in Q1 2024, indicating a healthy willingness to pay from distribution channels [9] Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on increasing the proportion of direct sales while enhancing its distribution model, with direct sales and distribution channels growing by 8.5% and 25.8% respectively in Q1 2024 [9] - The report emphasizes the company's ability to navigate market challenges and maintain a strong performance outlook, supported by a solid cash flow and a well-prepared operational strategy [9]