INDUSTRIAL BANK(601166) 国泰君安·2024-04-30 14:32Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Industrial Bank (601166) with a target price adjusted to 20.20 CNY [5][3]. Core Insights - The revenue growth for Q1 2024 turned positive at 4.2% year-on-year, with a narrowing decline in net profit, indicating a recovery in profitability [3]. - The net interest margin showed resilience, with a slight decrease of 2 basis points quarter-on-quarter and 10 basis points year-on-year, standing at 1.87% [3]. - The bank's asset quality remains stable, with a slight increase in the non-performing loan ratio to 1.7% and a rise in the provision coverage ratio [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 213.15 billion CNY, with a slight increase from 210.83 billion CNY in 2023 [4]. - Net profit for 2024 is expected to be 77.77 billion CNY, reflecting a modest increase from 77.12 billion CNY in 2023 [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is forecasted at 3.54 CNY, slightly up from 3.51 CNY in 2023 [4]. Profitability Metrics - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to decline to 9.45% in 2024 from 10.00% in 2023 [4]. - The net interest income is expected to recover, with a growth forecast of 3.16% in 2024 [7]. - The cost-to-income ratio is anticipated to improve slightly, indicating better operational efficiency [7]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan balance is projected to increase to 58.49 billion CNY by 2024, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.35% [7]. - The provision coverage ratio is expected to remain stable, indicating a cautious approach to credit risk management [7]. Market Position - The bank's market capitalization is approximately 341.32 billion CNY, with a current share price of 16.74 CNY [5]. - The stock has shown a 52-week price range of 14.11 to 17.63 CNY, reflecting moderate volatility [5]. Future Outlook - The report adjusts the net profit growth forecast for 2024-2026 to 0.8%, 3.2%, and 9.6% respectively, indicating a gradual recovery trajectory [3]. - The bank's strategy includes active adjustments in deposit structure to mitigate interest margin pressures [3].