Chengxin Lithium(SZ:002240) Soochow Securities·2024-04-30 21:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q1 2024 net profit attributable to shareholders was -140 million yuan, a decrease of 63% quarter-on-quarter, which aligns with market expectations. Revenue for Q1 2024 was 1.2 billion yuan, down 56% year-on-year and down 8% quarter-on-quarter. The gross profit margin was 4%, down 18 percentage points year-on-year but up 7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [3][4] - The company expects a 60% year-on-year increase in sales volume for 2024, with lithium product sales in Q1 2024 estimated at around 15,000 tons, a nearly 50% increase quarter-on-quarter. The company has established lithium salt production capacity of 77,000 tons, with additional capacity expected to come online in 2024 [3][4] - The self-supply rate of lithium salt from mining is projected to reach 40-50% in 2024, with significant contributions expected from the Muliang lithium mine in 2025. The company has signed long-term purchase agreements for lithium concentrate with various domestic and international companies [3][4] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company maintains its forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders at 720 million yuan, 870 million yuan, and 1.11 billion yuan for 2024-2026, representing year-on-year growth of 2%, 21%, and 28% respectively. The corresponding P/E ratios for 2024-2026 are 23x, 19x, and 15x [4][10] - The company's total revenue for 2024 is projected to be 5.948 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 25.20%. The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 716.16 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.98% [2][4]