2024年一季报点评：电池箔盈利基本见底，包装箔逐步减亏

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - In Q1 2024, battery foil shipments are expected to remain flat with a slight increase, with a projected growth of 25% for the year. The company anticipates Q1 battery foil shipments of 26,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of approximately 5%. From April, production is expected to ramp up significantly, with Q2 shipments projected to increase by 30%, leading to an annual total of 160,000 tons [1] - The company has demonstrated good cost control, with a Q1 expense ratio of 7%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year. However, the net cash flow from operating activities was negative at -550 million yuan, and capital expenditures decreased by 31% year-on-year to 50 million yuan [2] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2024-2026 due to weak overseas packaging foil demand, now expecting net profits of 400 million, 606 million, and 850 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 24x, 16x, and 12x [13] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 30 million yuan, a decrease of 80% year-on-year, with revenues of 5.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14% [11] - The gross margin for Q1 2024 was 10%, down 4 percentage points year-on-year but up 1 percentage point quarter-on-quarter [11] - The company expects to recover from losses in packaging foil as demand gradually improves, with Q1 packaging foil shipments estimated at 65,000 tons and losses per ton narrowing to 500 yuan [12] Financial Forecasts - The company forecasts total revenue of 21.85 billion yuan for 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 14.63%. The projected net profit for 2024 is 400 million yuan, reflecting a decrease of 25.20% compared to the previous year [11][13] - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 21.37 billion yuan by 2024, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 67.54% [7][23]