TZE(SZ:002129) Soochow Securities·2024-04-30 22:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for TCL Zhonghuan is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's revenue for 2023 was 59.146 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.74%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.416 billion yuan, down 49.9% year-on-year [3] - The company maintained high growth in silicon wafer shipments, with 114 GW shipped in 2023, a 68% increase year-on-year, but faced increased competition leading to pressure on profitability [3] - The company is strategically expanding its capacity and global presence, with a silicon wafer capacity of 183 GW by the end of 2023 and plans for new production lines in various regions [3] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue (in million yuan): - 2022: 67,010 - 2023: 59,146 (down 11.74%) - 2024E: 56,817 (down 3.94%) - 2025E: 71,667 (up 26.14%) - 2026E: 84,772 (up 18.29%) [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders (in million yuan): - 2022: 6,819 - 2023: 3,416 (down 49.90%) - 2024E: 1,843 (down 46.05%) - 2025E: 2,623 (up 42.34%) - 2026E: 3,814 (up 45.40%) [2] - Earnings per share (EPS): - 2022: 1.69 - 2023: 0.84 - 2024E: 0.46 - 2025E: 0.65 - 2026E: 0.94 [2] Market Position and Strategy - The company holds a market share of approximately 23.4% in silicon wafers and 36.4% in N-type wafers, maintaining its position as the leading exporter [3] - The company is diversifying its production capabilities, including the launch of differentiated TOPCon production lines and plans for new facilities in Saudi Arabia and the U.S. [3] - Inventory levels decreased to approximately 7.48 billion yuan in Q1 2024, reflecting a strategic response to market conditions [3]