全国化、高端化趋势延续，费用率管控优秀下利润弹性尽显

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shanxi Fenjiu is "Buy" with a maintained rating for the next six months [3]. Core Views - The company has shown a strong performance in 2023 with revenue and net profit reaching 31.93 billion and 10.44 billion yuan respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 21.80% and 28.93% [1][2]. - The trend of national expansion and high-end product positioning continues, with a notable increase in the proportion of high-end liquor sales [2]. - The company has effectively controlled its expense ratios, leading to improved profit margins, with a net profit margin increase of 1.64 percentage points to 32.76% in 2023 [2]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company's liquor revenue was 31.74 billion yuan, with high-end liquor revenue growing by 22.56% year-on-year [2]. - The average dealer scale increased by 14.13% to 758.39 million yuan per dealer in 2023, indicating a strengthening distribution network [2]. - The gross profit margin for 2023 was 75.31%, slightly down by 0.05 percentage points, while the net profit margin improved [2]. - The company expects revenue growth of 22% in 2024, with projected revenues of 38.95 billion yuan [6]. Market Expansion and Structure - The company has accelerated its national expansion, with revenue from outside Shanxi province reaching 19.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.84% [2]. - The proportion of revenue from outside Shanxi has increased to 61.93%, reflecting a successful strategy in expanding its market presence [2]. - The average dealer count increased by 303 to 3,940 dealers in 2023, indicating a robust growth in distribution channels [2]. Profitability and Cash Flow - The operating cash flow for 2023 decreased by 29.92% to 7.23 billion yuan, but the company maintains a strong cash position with contract liabilities and other current liabilities totaling 7.42 billion yuan [2]. - The company forecasts a steady increase in net profit, projecting 13.19 billion yuan for 2024, representing a 26% year-on-year growth [6].