KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2024-05-01 10:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [19] Core Insights - The company has shown robust revenue growth, with a 2024 Q1 revenue of 397.1 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.7% [5] - The direct sales channel revenue reached 193.2 billion yuan in 2024 Q1, up 8.5% year-on-year, while wholesale agency revenue surged to 263.2 billion yuan, marking a 25.8% increase [1] - The company is experiencing a strong performance in both volume and price due to the rapid shipment of products through distribution channels and price increases implemented at the end of 2023 [5][6] Financial Performance Summary - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 150.56 billion yuan in 2023 to 174.94 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 16.2% [4] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from 74.73 billion yuan in 2023 to 88.69 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting an 18.7% year-on-year increase [4] - The gross margin is forecasted to improve slightly from 92.1% in 2023 to 92.4% in 2024, while the net margin is expected to increase from 51.5% to 53.3% [4] Cash Flow and Operational Efficiency - The company reported a strong operating cash flow of 91.9 billion yuan in 2024 Q1, a significant increase of 75.2% year-on-year, driven by higher cash receipts from sales [6] - Contract liabilities reached 95.2 billion yuan in 2024 Q1, up 14.3% year-on-year, indicating healthy pre-sales activity [6] - The company maintains a stable gross margin while managing its sales and administrative expenses effectively, leading to a decrease in management expense ratio [6] Market Position and Growth Potential - The direct sales channel's share has been increasing since the launch of the i-Moutai platform in 2022 Q2, contributing to a more mature sales system that includes supermarkets, direct sales group purchases, and direct stores [1][3] - The company is expected to continue benefiting from market reforms and the acceleration of its distribution channels, which enhances its growth prospects [3][5]