MYSE(SH:601615) Soochow Securities·2024-05-02 02:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 27.86 billion yuan in 2023, a decrease of 9.39% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 372 million yuan, down 89.19% year-on-year. The fourth quarter of 2023 saw a revenue of 6.9 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter decline of 24% and year-on-year decline of 34%. The first quarter of 2024 is expected to show a revenue of 5.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 85% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 26%, with a net profit of 304 million yuan, turning positive [3][4]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - The total revenue for 2024 is projected to be 51.11 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 83.46%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 2.44 billion yuan, a significant increase of 556.14% year-on-year [2][4]. Wind Turbine Shipment Expectations - The company anticipates wind turbine shipments of 15 GW in 2024, an increase of over 35% year-on-year, with offshore wind turbine shipments expected to be 4-5 GW. In 2023, the company shipped approximately 9.7 GW of wind turbines, a year-on-year increase of 33%, with offshore wind accounting for 3 GW, also up 35% year-on-year [3][4]. Financial Performance and Cash Flow - The company experienced a significant impairment loss of 690 million yuan in 2023, and operating cash flow was under pressure, with negative cash flows of -2.7 billion yuan in Q4 2023 and -1.67 billion yuan in Q1 2024. The operating expense ratio for 2023 was 10.9%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points year-on-year [4][11]. Valuation and Profitability Metrics - The forecasted net profit for 2024-2026 is 2.44 billion yuan, 3.03 billion yuan, and 3.33 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 9x, 7x, and 7x. The company maintains a leading position in the wind turbine industry, and the recovery in offshore wind shipments is expected to enhance profitability [4][11].