国内业务高质量增长，海外短期拖累业绩

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 2.915 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 22%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 106 million yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 416% [24] - The domestic business is experiencing high-quality growth, while overseas operations are currently dragging down overall performance [5][24] - The company is expected to see rapid growth in net profit in 2024, driven by market share opportunities and continued channel expansion [24] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - 2023 revenue: 2.915 billion yuan, 2024 expected revenue: 3.332 billion yuan, 2025 expected revenue: 3.752 billion yuan, 2026 expected revenue: 4.223 billion yuan [15] - 2023 net profit: 106 million yuan, 2024 expected net profit: 276 million yuan, 2025 expected net profit: 344 million yuan, 2026 expected net profit: 394 million yuan [15] - Growth Rates: - Revenue growth rate for 2023: 21.7%, expected growth rate for 2024: 14.3% [15] - Net profit growth rate for 2023: 416.6%, expected growth rate for 2024: 161.1% [15] - Profitability Metrics: - Gross margin for 2023: 67.8%, expected gross margin for 2024: 68.8% [15] - Net margin for 2023: 3.6%, expected net margin for 2024: 8.3% [15] Business Segment Analysis - Domestic vs. Overseas Performance: - In 2023, domestic revenue accounted for 83% of total revenue, while overseas revenue accounted for 17% [24] - Domestic business profits have significantly rebounded, surpassing 2021 levels, while overseas operations are facing losses due to a challenging consumption environment [24] - Sales Channels: - Online revenue in 2023 increased by 12% to 390 million yuan, while offline revenue grew by 23.5% to 2.49 billion yuan [24] - Direct sales channel revenue rose by 23.9% to 2.4 billion yuan, with a gross margin increase of 4.7 percentage points to 71.7% [24] Brand Performance - Brand Revenue Growth: - Key brands such as ELLASSAY, Laurel, Edhardy, IRO, and SP saw revenue increases of 21%, 47%, 3%, 10%, and 50% respectively in 2023 [24] - The number of stores for these brands has also increased, indicating successful expansion efforts [24] Cash Flow Management - The company has demonstrated good cash flow management, with operating cash flow net amounts of 480 million yuan in 2023 and 428 million yuan expected in 2024 [27] - Inventory turnover is expected to improve, with inventory days increasing to 335.1 days in 2024 Q1 [24][27]