Ginlong Technologies(SZ:300763) Soochow Securities·2024-05-02 08:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 6.1 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 779 million yuan, a decrease of 26.5% [3] - The company experienced a significant decline in net profit in Q4 2023, with a net profit of only 28 million yuan, down 92.2% year-on-year [3] - The inverter shipment for 2023 was approximately 747,000 units, a decrease of about 21%, but there was a slight increase in grid-connected shipments in Q4 2023 and Q1 2024 [3] - The company expects a substantial recovery in Q2 2024, with inverter production expected to reach 300,000 units, driven by an increase in overseas market contributions [3] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2024 is 8.34 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 36.65%, and net profit is expected to be 1.08 billion yuan, an increase of 38.53% [2][6] - The company's gross margin is projected to be below 20% in Q1 2024 due to a lower proportion of overseas sales and high-cost inventory [3] - The operating cash flow for 2023 was 383 million yuan, with a significant cash outflow in Q1 2024 due to reduced sales collections [7] Shipment and Production Insights - The company anticipates that total grid-connected shipments will reach over 1.2 million units in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of over 50% [3] - The distributed generation business saw a revenue of 1.49 billion yuan in 2023, more than doubling year-on-year, contributing approximately 500 million yuan to profits [4] Cost and Expense Analysis - The expense ratio increased significantly to 23% in Q1 2024, up from 18% in 2023, primarily due to a decline in revenue and increased financing costs [4] - The company’s total liabilities are projected to increase, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 64.35% as of 2023 [5][6]