Yanghe(SZ:002304) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2024-05-02 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2][5]. Core Views - The company has achieved stable revenue growth, with a 2023 revenue of 33.126 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.04%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 10.016 billion yuan, up 6.80% year-on-year [5]. - For Q1 2024, the company reported revenue of 16.255 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.03%, and a net profit of 6.055 billion yuan, up 5.02% year-on-year. The revenue performance was slightly below expectations, and the structural upgrade has slowed down [5]. - The company aims for a revenue growth of 5%-10% in 2024, with a dividend payout ratio expected to increase to 70%, resulting in a dividend yield of 5% [5]. Revenue and Profitability - The company's revenue from high-end and ordinary liquor in 2023 was 28.539 billion yuan and 3.950 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 8.82% and 20.70% [6]. - The sales volume and price per ton in 2023 decreased by 14.93% and increased by 29.78%, respectively, mainly due to changes in the product structure of ordinary liquor [6]. - The gross profit margin for 2023 was 75.25%, an increase of 0.64 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin decreased by 0.94 percentage points to 30.25% [8]. Market Competition - Revenue from the company's domestic market was 14.393 billion yuan, up 8.05% year-on-year, while revenue from outside the province was 18.096 billion yuan, up 11.85% year-on-year. The slowdown in domestic growth is attributed to the high proportion of the Dream 6+ product, which has been significantly affected by intensified competition [7]. Financial Forecasts - The company forecasts net profits of 11.1 billion yuan, 12.49 billion yuan, and 14.1 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 10.8%, 12.5%, and 12.9% [5][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 7.37 yuan, 8.29 yuan, and 9.36 yuan for the same years, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 13.0, 11.6, and 10.2 times [5][9].