电价提升对冲电量下滑,装机增量为业绩持续增长打下基础

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Huaneng Hydropower [5] Core Views - The increase in electricity prices has offset the decline in electricity generation, and the growth in installed capacity lays a foundation for sustained performance [1][2] - The company's 2023 revenue was 23.461 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.51% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 5.58% to 7.638 billion yuan [1][2] - In Q1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 4.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.58%, and a net profit of 1.065 billion yuan, up 17.25% year-on-year [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the total electricity generation was 107.06 billion kWh, a decrease of 4.04% year-on-year, while the average market transaction price of electricity in Yunnan province increased by approximately 11.4% to 0.252 yuan/kWh [2] - The company's financial expenses decreased by 14.14% year-on-year due to optimization of debt financing structure [2] - The acquisition of Huaneng Sichuan was completed in September 2023, adding 2.651 million kW of installed capacity [2] Future Growth Prospects - The company is expected to see continued growth in installed capacity from 2023 to 2025, with new projects like the Toba Power Station and the Hard Beam Package Power Station contributing an additional 2.516 million kW by the end of 2025 [3] - The forecasted net profit for 2024-2026 is 8.58 billion, 9.30 billion, and 9.84 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 19.9, 18.4, and 17.4 [3][4]