需求波动导致业绩承压，期待轨交环保放量

Investment Rating - The report downgrades the company's rating to "Hold" due to the slower-than-expected commercialization of its intelligent inspection robot products and the need for more time for new business areas such as rail transit and environmental protection to contribute to performance [1][6] Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure due to demand fluctuations, with a significant decline in revenue and net profit in 2023 and Q1 2024 [1] - 2023 revenue: RMB 386 million, down 1.32% YoY - 2023 net profit: RMB -101 million, down 55.32% YoY - Q1 2024 revenue: RMB 8 million, down 96.16% YoY - Q1 2024 net profit: RMB -33 million, down 157.95% YoY - The company's intelligent robot products saw a sharp decline in revenue, mainly due to changes in downstream grid demand, while online monitoring products maintained stable growth [1] - Intelligent robot revenue: RMB 11 million, down 93.26% YoY - Online monitoring revenue: RMB 348 million, up 85.63% YoY - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing demand for robots in the smart grid sector, with potential performance recovery as orders rebound [1] - The company is actively expanding into rail transit and environmental protection, with products and solutions entering the initial commercialization phase [1] Financial Performance - The company's profitability declined in 2023 and Q1 2024, with gross and net margins falling significantly [1] - 2023 gross margin: 43.52%, down 6.16 pct YoY - 2023 net margin: -26.10%, down 9.51 pct YoY - Q1 2024 gross margin: 40.89% - Q1 2024 net margin: -416.40% - The company maintained high R&D expenses, with a R&D expense ratio of 33.74% in 2023, up 0.98 pct YoY, as it expanded into new industrial fields such as rail transit, environmental protection, and high-end equipment [1] Future Outlook - The company's revenue and net profit are expected to grow steadily from 2024 to 2026, driven by the recovery of intelligent robot demand and the contribution of new business areas [1][5] - 2024E revenue: RMB 529 million, up 36.8% YoY - 2024E net profit: RMB 73 million, up 172.7% YoY - 2025E revenue: RMB 698 million, up 32.1% YoY - 2025E net profit: RMB 105 million, up 43.2% YoY - 2026E revenue: RMB 891 million, up 27.6% YoY - 2026E net profit: RMB 148 million, up 41.0% YoY - The company's valuation multiples are expected to improve, with P/E ratios declining from 34.3x in 2024E to 17.0x in 2026E [5] Financial Ratios - The company's key financial ratios show a mixed picture, with improving revenue growth and profitability expected in the coming years, but weak cash flow and high leverage remain concerns [13] - 2024E revenue growth: 36.8% - 2024E net margin: 13.9% - 2024E ROE: 6.0% - 2024E debt-to-equity ratio: 49.4% - 2024E operating cash flow per share: RMB -0.52