Kouzijiao(603589) 国海证券·2024-05-03 05:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][8] Core Views - The company has shown continuous revenue growth with a high dividend yield, indicating effective transformation efforts [1][3] - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 5.962 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.10%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.721 billion yuan, up 11.04% year-on-year [2][3] - For Q1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 1.768 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.05% year-on-year growth, and a net profit of 589 million yuan, which is a 10.02% increase year-on-year [2][3] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - The company's revenue and net profit growth rates for 2023 and Q1 2024 are 16.10% and 11.05% for revenue, and 11.04% and 10.02% for net profit respectively, indicating robust performance [3] - The company's cash flow is strong, with a year-on-year increase of 15.46% in sales cash receipts and 54.95% in operating cash flow for Q1 2024 [3] Product and Market Strategy - The company has diversified its product matrix, launching new products in the 200 yuan price range, which is expected to enhance market penetration [3][5] - Revenue from high-end, mid-range, and low-end liquor products in 2023 was 5.678 billion, 76 million, and 95 million yuan respectively, with high-end product revenue growing significantly [3] - The company is focusing on expanding its market presence in both domestic and external markets, with revenue from Anhui province reaching 4.902 billion yuan, up 17.53% year-on-year [3] Financial Metrics and Forecast - The company's gross margin improved by 1.03 percentage points to 75.19%, while the net profit margin decreased by 1.32 percentage points to 28.87% [3][6] - The company forecasts revenues of 7.042 billion, 8.130 billion, and 9.339 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.030 billion, 2.378 billion, and 2.727 billion yuan [7][8] - The estimated EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is projected to be 3.38, 3.96, and 4.55 yuan respectively, with P/E ratios of 12, 11, and 9 [7][8]