Baolong Automotive(SH:603197) Guohai Securities·2024-05-03 05:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for Baolong Technology (603197) is "Buy" (maintained) [7][22]. Core Views - Baolong Technology has shown robust revenue growth, with a significant increase in emerging businesses, particularly in air suspension and sensor sectors, which are entering a rapid growth phase [21][22]. - The company reported a substantial increase in net profit for 2023, driven by operational efficiency and favorable currency exchange rates, while the first quarter of 2024 saw a temporary profit decline due to rising expenses [20][21]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, Baolong Technology achieved a revenue of 58.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.44%, and a net profit of 3.79 billion yuan, up 76.92% [20][21]. - For Q1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 14.8 billion yuan, a 24.94% increase year-on-year, but a net profit decrease of 27.16% [20][21]. Revenue Growth Drivers - The main business revenue for 2023 was 57.82 billion yuan, growing by 27.60%, primarily due to the rapid growth of new businesses, with air suspension and sensor revenues reaching 7.01 billion yuan and 5.31 billion yuan, respectively, marking increases of 174.75% and 45.16% [21]. - The TPMS business also gained market share, achieving a revenue of 19.11 billion yuan, up 29.44% [21]. Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 77 billion yuan, 96 billion yuan, and 118 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 31%, 24%, and 23% [22]. - Projected net profits for the same years are 5.1 billion yuan, 6.7 billion yuan, and 8.7 billion yuan, with growth rates of 35%, 32%, and 28% [22]. Valuation Metrics - The projected EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 2.41 yuan, 3.18 yuan, and 4.08 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 17, 13, and 10 [22]. - The company maintains a healthy ROE, expected to rise from 15% in 2024 to 18% in 2026 [22].