GREE(SZ:000651) ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2024-05-03 07:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][11]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 205 billion yuan in 2023, representing an 8% year-over-year growth, and a net profit of 29 billion yuan, which is an 18% increase [6]. - The company has a healthy financial position with a significant cash dividend plan, distributing 2.38 yuan per share, corresponding to a dividend payout ratio of 45% and a current dividend yield of 5.6% [6]. - The air conditioning segment remains strong, contributing 74% of total revenue, with a 12% increase in revenue for 2023 [7]. - The company is expected to maintain robust performance in 2024, with projected revenues of 220.7 billion yuan and net profits of 32.1 billion yuan [6][7]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Forecast: - 2022: 190.15 billion yuan - 2023: 205.02 billion yuan (8% growth) - 2024E: 220.69 billion yuan (8% growth) - 2025E: 229.96 billion yuan (4% growth) - 2026E: 239.86 billion yuan (4% growth) [2]. - Net Profit Forecast: - 2022: 24.51 billion yuan - 2023: 29.02 billion yuan (18% growth) - 2024E: 32.06 billion yuan (10% growth) - 2025E: 34.42 billion yuan (7% growth) - 2026E: 36.77 billion yuan (7% growth) [2]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2023: 5.15 yuan - 2024E: 5.69 yuan - 2025E: 6.11 yuan - 2026E: 6.53 yuan [9]. - Valuation Ratios: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) for 2024-2026 is projected at 7.4, 6.9, and 6.5 respectively [6][9]. Dividend and Cash Flow - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.38 yuan per share for 2023, which is higher than the previous year's 2 yuan per share [6]. - The operating cash flow for Q1 2024 was reported at -2.9 billion yuan, indicating a temporary cash outflow related to inventory and receivables management [7]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from ongoing channel reforms and the expansion of its new energy business, which may lead to additional growth opportunities [6]. - The air conditioning segment's performance is anticipated to drive overall revenue growth, supported by structural upgrades and increased average selling prices [7].