2023年报及2024年一季报点评：提升全网服务能力，盈利稳步恢复

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 45 billion yuan in 2023, a decrease of 5.2% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 9.6% to 1.63 billion yuan [2] - In Q1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of approximately 11.2 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.5%, and a net profit of about 410 million yuan, up 15.0% year-on-year [2] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.17 yuan per share (including tax) [2] Summary by Sections Market Data - Total share capital: 2.899 billion shares - Total market value: 22.846 billion yuan - One-year low/high: 5.66/12.37 yuan - Turnover rate over the last three months: 57.09% [1] Financial Performance - In 2023, the company handled approximately 18.9 billion express parcels, a growth of 7.1%, but below the national growth rate of 19.4% [2] - The company's express service revenue in 2023 was about 43.3 billion yuan, down 3.7% year-on-year, with a single ticket revenue of approximately 2.30 yuan, a decrease of 10.1% [2] - Cost control measures led to a decrease in single ticket costs by 10.2% in 2023, with a gross margin of 8.52% [2] Operational Insights - The company has been enhancing its service capabilities, leading to a steady recovery in delivery quality since October 2023, with significant month-on-month growth in parcel volume [2] - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in profitability due to ongoing cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures, despite short-term pressure on single ticket revenue from intensified market competition [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report adjusts the net profit forecast for 2024 and 2025 down by 15% and 21% to 2.44 billion yuan and 2.83 billion yuan, respectively, while introducing a 2026 forecast of 3.24 billion yuan [2] - The company is expected to see a gradual improvement in profitability as operational measures take effect [2]