Ganso(SH:603886) Orient Securities·2024-05-03 07:32Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 19.05 CNY, based on a 15x PE valuation for 2024 [3][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.659 billion CNY in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 2.78%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 276 million CNY, up 3.74% year-on-year [2]. - The first quarter of 2024 saw a revenue decline to 421 million CNY, down 5.96% year-on-year, with a net loss of 8.39 million CNY [2]. - The company has maintained a consistent cash dividend policy of 1 CNY per share since 2020, with a payout ratio increasing from 80% in 2020 to 87% in 2023, indicating strong cash flow and dividend capability [2]. Revenue and Profitability Analysis - In 2023, the company's cake and pastry gift box segments generated revenues of 1.042 billion CNY and 1.450 billion CNY, respectively, with growth rates of 0.06% and 5.07% [2]. - Offline stores and e-commerce channels contributed 1.287 billion CNY and 1.274 billion CNY in revenue, reflecting year-on-year growth of 2.48% and 2.97% [2]. - The gross margin improved to 60.82% in 2023, with a net profit margin of 10.39%, indicating stable profitability despite rising sales expenses [2]. Financial Forecasts - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts downward while increasing gross margin expectations, projecting EPS of 1.27 CNY, 1.41 CNY, and 1.52 CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [7]. - The historical valuation method suggests a target price of 19.05 CNY for 2024, maintaining a "Buy" rating [7].