KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Tianfeng Securities·2024-05-03 10:06Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating for the company with a target price of 1705元 [5] Core Views - The company's Q1 2024 revenue exceeded market expectations, with liquor business revenue reaching 456.43 billion yuan (YoY +17.83%) [1] - Maotai liquor revenue accounted for 86.99% of total revenue, showing stable performance [1] - The company's operating cash flow in Q1 2024 was 91.87 billion yuan (YoY +75.17%), driven by increased sales collections [2] - The report forecasts steady performance for 2024-2026, with expected revenue growth of 16%/15%/14% and net profit growth of 16%/16%/15% [12] Revenue Performance - Q1 2024 Maotai liquor revenue was 397.07 billion yuan (YoY +17.75%), while series liquor revenue was 59.36 billion yuan (YoY +18.39%) [1] - The company plans to focus on increasing market investment in premium products such as Jingpin/Shengxiao/Small-sized Maotai/24 Solar Terms/Xun Liquor in 2024 [1] Profitability - Q1 2024 gross profit margin was 92.61%, while net profit margin was 54.36% [11] - The decline in net profit margin was attributed to changes in channel structure and tax rate issues, with taxes and surcharges accounting for 15.73% of revenue [11] Financial Metrics - The company's contract liabilities and other current liabilities stood at 106.69 billion yuan in Q1 2024 [2] - Sales collection in Q1 2024 was 462.57 billion yuan (YoY +29.34%) [2] - The report forecasts EPS for 2024-2026 to be 69.28/80.56/92.74 yuan per share [12] Market and Valuation - The company's P/E ratio for 2024-2026 is projected to be 25X/21X/18X [12] - The report highlights the company's strong management capabilities and expects stable performance despite short-term price fluctuations in the Maotai market [12] Operational Highlights - The company plans to release 4.5WT of Maotai liquor in 2024, with a focus on expanding premium product lines [1] - The number of distributors increased by 15 to 2203 in Q1 2024, with average distributor scale growing by 24.92% to 1194.91 million yuan per distributor [11]