SAIC MOTOR(600104) 东吴证券·2024-05-03 19:00Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q1 2024 performance met expectations, with revenue of 1,430.72 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.95%, and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 35.37% [3] - Net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.714 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.48%, and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.55% [3] - The company's self-owned brand, new energy vehicles, and exports are performing well, with core technologies in new energy and intelligent hardware and software fully deployed [4] - Joint ventures are actively transforming, with collaborations such as the memorandum of understanding with Audi and the establishment of a software and digital center with General Motors [4] Financial Performance - Q1 2024 wholesale sales were 834,200 units, a year-on-year decrease of 6.40%, and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 49.25% [3] - The average selling price (ASP) per vehicle was 171,500 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.75%, and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 27.34% [3] - Gross margin for Q1 2024 was 8.84%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.99 percentage points, and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 1.87 percentage points [3] - Investment income for Q1 2024 was 2.754 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.69%, and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 33.03% [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue for 2024E is projected to be 758.184 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.81% [2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024E is projected to be 14.266 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.13% [2] - EPS for 2024E is projected to be 1.23 yuan per share, with a P/E ratio of 12.06 [2] - Revenue for 2026E is projected to be 882.169 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.42% [2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2026E is projected to be 19.615 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.96% [2] Market Data - Closing price: 14.86 yuan [5] - Price range over the past year: 12.92 yuan to 15.77 yuan [5] - P/B ratio: 0.59 [5] - Market capitalization: 1.7200895 trillion yuan [5] Financial Data - Net asset per share: 25.00 yuan [6] - Asset-liability ratio: 63.64% [6] - Total share capital: 11.5753 billion shares [6] - Circulating A shares: 11.5753 billion shares [6] Related Research - "SAIC Motor (600104): March Wholesale Sales Increased by 83% Month-on-Month, SAIC-GM Production and Sales Returned to Normal" (2024-04-12) [7] - "SAIC Motor (600104): 2023 Annual Report Review: Q4 2023 Performance Met Expectations, New Energy + Exports + Self-owned Brands All Performing Well" (2024-04-03) [7]