Yanghe(SZ:002304) EBSCN·2024-05-04 06:09Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - In 2023, the company achieved total revenue of 33.126 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.04%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 10.016 billion yuan, up 6.80% year-on-year. The proposed cash dividend for 2023 is 46.6 yuan per 10 shares (including tax) [2][3]. - The company experienced a decline in Q4 2023 revenue, attributed to inventory digestion before the peak season, but Q1 2024 showed a stable start with a revenue increase of 8.03% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company aims for a revenue growth target of 5%-10% for 2024, with an increased dividend payout ratio of 70% [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company's revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor was 28.539 billion yuan, growing 8.82% year-on-year, while ordinary liquor revenue was 3.950 billion yuan, increasing by 20.70% [2]. - The company reported a Q4 2023 revenue of 2.843 billion yuan, a decrease of 21.51% year-on-year, and a net profit of -188 million yuan, down 161.28% year-on-year [2]. - For Q1 2024, total revenue reached 16.255 billion yuan, up 8.03% year-on-year, with a net profit of 6.055 billion yuan, an increase of 5.02% [2]. Profitability and Cash Flow - The gross profit margin for Q4 2023 was 69.62%, while Q1 2024 saw a margin of 76.03%, indicating relative stability in profitability [3]. - The company reported a total cash collection of 22.218 billion yuan for 2023 and Q1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 13.05%, with a net operating cash flow of 6.637 billion yuan, up 10.49% [3]. Future Projections - The company has revised its net profit forecasts for 2024 and 2025 to 10.75 billion yuan and 11.84 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment of 11% and 15% from previous estimates [3][4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 7.14 yuan for 2024, 7.86 yuan for 2025, and 8.59 yuan for 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 13, 12, and 11 times [3][4].