2024年一季报点评：业绩表现符合预期，天然气重卡持续领跑

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q1 2024 performance met expectations, with significant year-on-year growth in revenue and net profit, driven by strong sales of natural gas heavy trucks [3][4] - The company aims to continue increasing domestic heavy truck sales while accelerating technological advancements in globalization, electrification, and intelligence [4] Summary by Relevant Sections Performance Overview - In Q1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 18.98 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 35.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 170 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 174.0% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 51.7% [3] - The company sold a total of 78,500 vehicles in Q1 2024, with heavy truck sales of 59,000 units, reflecting year-on-year increases of 34.2% and 33.3%, respectively [3] Sales and Market Share - The company's heavy truck market share reached 21.7% in Q1 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 3.3 percentage points. The sales of natural gas heavy trucks surged by 127.7% year-on-year, maintaining a market share of 34.2% [3][4] - The average selling price per vehicle was 241,900 yuan, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.7% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 15.5% [3] Profitability and Cost Management - The overall gross margin for Q1 2024 was 6.3%, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.2 percentage points. The improvement was attributed to enhanced capacity utilization and economies of scale [3] - The total expense ratio decreased significantly to 6.1%, down 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, indicating better cost management [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its earnings forecast for 2024 and 2025, projecting net profits of 1.028 billion yuan and 1.724 billion yuan, respectively. The EPS for 2024 to 2026 is expected to be 0.22, 0.37, and 0.53 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 41.07, 24.51, and 17.23 times [4]