Eastern Air Logistics (601156) Guohai Securities·2024-05-04 14:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Eastern Airlines Logistics [1] Core Views - In Q1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 5.224 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.17%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 589 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.64% [2][3] - The decline in air express revenue was attributed to low freight rate agreements, but the comprehensive logistics solutions segment saw significant growth, with a revenue increase of 63.95% [3][4] - The new freight rate agreement cycle is expected to begin in Q2 2024, with an upward trend in freight rates anticipated, which could drive revenue growth [5][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2024 revenue was 5.224 billion yuan, up 14.17% year-on-year; net profit was 589 million yuan, down 22.64% year-on-year; and net profit excluding non-recurring items was 527 million yuan, down 19.83% year-on-year [2][4] - The air express segment generated 2.004 billion yuan in revenue, down 17.05% year-on-year; ground services generated 590 million yuan, up 6.83%; and comprehensive logistics solutions generated 2.627 billion yuan, up 63.95% [2][4] Market Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the rising demand in cross-border e-commerce logistics, establishing partnerships with leading platforms and logistics companies [5][7] - The average outbound air freight index for Shanghai Pudong in April 2024 was 4506.2 points, an increase of 4.03% year-on-year and 11.56% month-on-month, indicating a positive market trend [5] Earnings Forecast - Projected revenues for Eastern Airlines Logistics from 2024 to 2026 are 25.441 billion yuan, 28.074 billion yuan, and 30.604 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 3.014 billion yuan, 3.491 billion yuan, and 3.837 billion yuan [8][9] - The expected P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 9.64, 8.32, and 7.57, respectively, indicating potential for growth [8][9]