GUIZHOU SANLI(SH:603439) Soochow Securities·2024-05-05 01:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guizhou Sanli (603439) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 1.64 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 36.10%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 292.7 million yuan, up 45.42% year-on-year [11] - The core product, the "Kaitou Jian" spray, saw significant demand due to an increase in respiratory diseases, with sales expected to reach nearly 1.3 billion yuan in 2023, a growth of approximately 20% [11] - The company is actively expanding its product matrix through acquisitions, enhancing its market presence across various therapeutic areas [11] - The earnings forecast for 2024 and 2025 has been adjusted downwards to 350 million yuan and 420 million yuan respectively, with a projected net profit of 510 million yuan in 2026 [11] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue (million yuan): 1,201 in 2022, projected to reach 3,560 in 2026, with a CAGR of 27.94% from 2022 to 2026 [1][11] - Net profit (million yuan): 201.28 in 2022, expected to grow to 506.13 in 2026, reflecting a CAGR of 19.80% [1][11] - EPS (yuan/share): 0.49 in 2022, projected to increase to 1.23 in 2026 [1][11] - P/E ratio: 31.89 in 2022, expected to decrease to 12.68 by 2026 [1][11] Cash Flow and Valuation Metrics - Operating cash flow (million yuan): 277 in 2023, projected to reach 457 in 2026 [6] - ROIC (%): 13.30 in 2023, expected to rise to 15.93 by 2026 [6] - Asset-liability ratio (%): 39.21 in 2023, projected to decrease to 29.29 by 2026 [6]