SDHS(SH:600350) ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2024-05-05 02:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shandong Expressway, expecting a relative increase of over 15% in stock price compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [6]. Core Views - The company's Q1 2024 performance met expectations, with a revenue of 4.532 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.87%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.032 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6.70% [2][4]. - The report highlights a decrease in toll revenue and an increase in investment income, indicating a mixed performance across different segments. The toll revenue (including tax) was 2.261 billion yuan, down 12.21% year-on-year [2][4]. - The ongoing expansion projects are expected to enhance the company's long-term growth potential, with significant progress reported in various construction projects [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2022, the company achieved a revenue of 18.486 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 14%. For 2023, the revenue is projected to be 26.546 billion yuan, reflecting a 44% increase. The net profit for 2022 was 2.855 billion yuan, with a projected increase to 3.297 billion yuan in 2023, marking a 15% growth [2][4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 0.59 yuan, increasing to 0.68 yuan in 2025, and further to 0.74 yuan in 2026 [2][4]. Investment Highlights - The report emphasizes the importance of ongoing expansion projects, which are expected to drive future growth. The completion of these projects is anticipated to lead to increased traffic and toll rates, thereby enhancing revenue [2][4]. - The company has a stable dividend policy, with a cash dividend ratio projected to be around 60% of the net profit attributable to shareholders, ensuring consistent returns to investors [2][4]. Market Outlook - The report projects a steady growth in revenue and net profit over the next few years, with expected revenues of 27.846 billion yuan in 2024 and 29.192 billion yuan in 2025. The net profit is expected to reach 3.588 billion yuan in 2024 and 3.832 billion yuan in 2025 [2][4]. - The company's P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 15.1 in 2023 to 10.2 by 2026, indicating a potentially attractive valuation for investors [2][4].