2024年一季报点评：自营承压拖累整体业绩期待整合进程加速推进

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q1 2024 performance was significantly impacted by a decline in proprietary trading, leading to a net loss of 219 million yuan, compared to a profit in Q1 2023 [2][3] - The company is planning to acquire control of Minsheng Securities, marking the start of a formal integration process [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the company reported total revenue of 173 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 74.44%, and a net loss attributable to shareholders of 219 million yuan [2][3] - The proprietary trading business suffered a revenue drop to -150 million yuan, down from 373 million yuan in Q1 2023, primarily due to significant market volatility [3] - Net interest income turned negative, decreasing by 149% year-on-year to -27 million yuan, attributed to increased financing scale and reduced disposal of other debt investments [3] Business Segments - The light asset business showed neutral performance, with asset management income significantly boosted by the consolidation of Guolian Fund, which saw a 350% year-on-year increase to 143 million yuan [3] - Brokerage business revenue declined by 3% to 108 million yuan, likely due to a decrease in commission rates despite an increase in market trading activity [3] - Investment banking revenue fell by 13% to 78 million yuan, impacted by regulatory restrictions on IPOs and refinancing [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2024-2026 has been revised downwards, with expected net profits of 403 million yuan, 840 million yuan, and 987 million yuan respectively, reflecting a growth rate of -40.01%, 108.45%, and 17.52% [4] - The estimated EPS for the same period is projected to be 0.11 yuan, 0.24 yuan, and 0.28 yuan, with corresponding P/B ratios of 1.65, 1.45, and 1.41 [4]