业务量增速快速修复，产品力边际改善

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Hold" rating to the company [3]. Core Insights - The company has shown a rapid recovery in business volume growth, with a significant improvement in its fundamentals [15][24]. - The company is positioned in the low-to-mid-end express delivery market, ranking fourth in the industry by business volume [10][34]. - The financial performance indicates a positive trend, with revenue and net profit growth expected to continue in the coming years [72]. Summary by Sections Operating and Financial Data - In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 40.924 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.54%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 341 million yuan, up 18.41% year-on-year [2][37]. - The company completed a business volume of 17.507 billion pieces in 2023, reflecting a growth of 35.23% year-on-year, while the average revenue per piece decreased by 11.24% to 2.23 yuan [2][40]. - In Q1 2024, the company reported revenue of 10.131 billion yuan, a 15.87% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 190 million yuan, up 43.20% year-on-year [2][13]. Business Volume and Market Position - The company’s business volume growth exceeded the industry average by 16 percentage points in 2023, achieving a market share of 13.26%, an increase of 1.55 percentage points year-on-year [24][40]. - The company plans to enhance its infrastructure to support further growth, with an expected daily throughput capacity increase to over 75 million pieces by 2024 [24][40]. Profitability Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The report forecasts that the company will maintain a business volume growth rate of 22% in 2024, followed by 13% in 2025 and 10% in 2026 [72]. - Revenue is projected to reach 48.042 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 812 million yuan, reflecting a significant increase compared to previous years [72][75]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are expected to be 0.53, 0.62, and 0.70 yuan, respectively, with a target price of 9.54 yuan based on an 18x PE ratio for 2024 [72][75].