2024年一季报点评：自营承压拖累整体业绩，期待整合进程加速推进

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in performance for Q1 2024, with total revenue dropping by 74.44% year-on-year to 173 million yuan and a net loss attributable to shareholders of 219 million yuan, reversing from profit in Q1 2023 [3] - The self-operated business has been a major drag on overall performance, with self-operated income falling to -150 million yuan in Q1 2024 from 373 million yuan in Q1 2023, primarily due to market volatility affecting equity investments and derivative products [3] - The company is planning to acquire control of Minsheng Securities, marking the official start of the integration process, which is expected to enhance its scale and complement its strengths with Minsheng Securities [3] Summary by Sections Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company’s total revenue is projected to be 2,834 million yuan in 2024, down 4.11% from 2023, with net profit attributable to shareholders expected to be 403 million yuan, a decrease of 40.01% [2][4] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is forecasted at 0.11 yuan, with price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2024-2026 estimated at 91.73, 44.00, and 37.44 respectively [2][4] Financial Performance - The company’s net interest income turned negative in Q1 2024, dropping by 149% year-on-year to -27 million yuan, attributed to increased financing scale and reduced disposal of other debt investments [3] - The asset management business saw a significant increase in revenue, with net income rising by 350% year-on-year to 143 million yuan, largely due to the consolidation of Guolian Fund [3] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is 10.46 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 29,620.35 million yuan [5] - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is currently at 1.65 [5] Basic Data - The company has a total share capital of approximately 2,831.77 million shares, with a net asset value per share of 6.32 yuan [6]