YILI(SH:600887) Guohai Securities·2024-05-05 04:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][7] Core Views - The report emphasizes high-quality development and further enhancement of shareholder returns [1] - The company achieved a revenue of 126.18 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 2.44%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.43 billion yuan, up 10.58% year-on-year [3][4] - The company plans to achieve a revenue target of 130 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 3% [5] Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company's revenue by category was as follows: liquid milk 85.54 billion yuan (+0.72% YoY), milk powder 27.60 billion yuan (+5.09% YoY), and ice cream 10.69 billion yuan (+11.72% YoY) [2][3] - For Q1 2024, the company reported revenues of 32.58 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.58% year-on-year, with a net profit of 5.92 billion yuan, an increase of 63.84% year-on-year [3][4] - The gross profit margin for Q1 2024 was 35.79%, an increase of 2.02 percentage points year-on-year [5] Shareholder Returns - The company distributed a cash dividend of 7.639 billion yuan in 2023, with a total return to shareholders of 8.336 billion yuan, accounting for 79.94% of net profit attributable to shareholders [5] - The company announced a share buyback plan of up to 2 billion yuan, aimed at reducing registered capital and enhancing shareholder returns [5] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 131.16 billion yuan, 137.36 billion yuan, and 144.70 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 12.82 billion yuan, 12.43 billion yuan, and 13.28 billion yuan [6][7] - The projected P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 14, 15, and 14 respectively [6][7]