LZLJ(SZ:000568) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2024-05-05 10:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][3] Core Views - The company has shown strong revenue growth, with total operating income of 30.23 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 13.25 billion yuan, up 27.8% year-on-year [3] - For Q1 2024, total operating income reached 9.19 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.7%, with a net profit of 4.57 billion yuan, up 23.2% year-on-year [3] - The company is expected to maintain a revenue growth target of no less than 15% in 2024, with a dividend payout ratio of 60% for 2023 [3] Summary by Relevant Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company’s high-end liquor segment contributed significantly to revenue growth, with mid-to-high-end liquor revenue of 26.84 billion yuan in 2023, up 21% year-on-year, driven by a 20% price increase and a 1% volume increase [4] - The gross margin improved to 88.3% in 2023, up 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin increased to 44.0%, up 2.6 percentage points year-on-year [6] Cash Flow and Financial Health - As of Q1 2024, the company reported a contract liability balance of 2.53 billion yuan, an increase of 8.1 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating strong cash flow [5] - The sales cash collection for Q1 2024 was 10.64 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.3%, which is higher than the actual revenue growth rate [5] Financial Forecasts - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 16.46 billion yuan, 20.02 billion yuan, and 23.96 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 24.2%, 21.6%, and 19.7% [3][9] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the same years are 11.18 yuan, 13.60 yuan, and 16.28 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 16.9, 13.9, and 11.6 [3][9]