YUNDA Corp.(SZ:002120) Guohai Securities·2024-05-05 10:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][7][9] Core Views - The report highlights a recovery in business volume growth, a rebalancing of supply and demand, and expected earnings elasticity for Yunda Express [1][4][7] - The company has improved its service levels and customer acquisition capabilities, leading to a return to growth in business volume [4][7] - The report anticipates continued cost optimization and performance improvement due to scale effects and capital expenditure reaching its peak [7][8] Financial Summary - In 2023, Yunda Express achieved operating revenue of 44.983 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.17%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.625 billion yuan, an increase of 9.58% [3][8] - For Q1 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 11.156 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.50%, and a net profit of 412 million yuan, up 15.02% [3][8] - The business volume for 2023 was 18.854 billion parcels, a year-on-year increase of 7.07%, and for Q1 2024, it reached 4.942 billion parcels, a growth of 29.14% [3][4] Cost and Profitability - The company has successfully reduced core operating costs per parcel by 11% in 2023, leading to a gross margin of 9.55%, an increase of 0.42 percentage points year-on-year [4][6] - In Q1 2024, despite a 6.79% increase in operating costs, the gross margin was 10.33%, with a net profit margin of 3.70%, up 0.27 percentage points year-on-year [6][8] Earnings Forecast - The report projects Yunda Express's operating revenue for 2024-2026 to be 59.55 billion yuan, 66.808 billion yuan, and 73.670 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 2.232 billion yuan, 3.008 billion yuan, and 3.828 billion yuan [7][8] - Corresponding P/E ratios for the same period are expected to be 10.20, 7.57, and 5.95, indicating strong earnings growth potential [7][8]