CRRC(601766) 中金公司·2024-05-05 14:02Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 7.88 for A-shares and HKD 5.10 for H-shares [2][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a strong performance in Q1 2024, with a net profit of RMB 1.008 billion, a year-on-year increase of 63.9%, driven by higher delivery of train sets [5][11]. - The railway equipment revenue saw significant growth, particularly in the train set segment, which increased by 113% year-on-year [5]. - The gross margin improved to 24.9%, up 3.4 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to a higher proportion of high-margin railway equipment sales [5][11]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue: - 2022: RMB 222.939 billion - 2023: RMB 234.262 billion - 2024E: RMB 240.868 billion - 2025E: RMB 248.796 billion - Growth rates: -1.2% (2022A to 2023A), 5.1% (2023A to 2024E), 2.8% (2024E to 2025E) [4][8]. - Net Profit: - 2022: RMB 11.653 billion - 2023: RMB 11.712 billion - 2024E: RMB 12.598 billion - 2025E: RMB 13.428 billion - Growth rates: 13.1% (2022A to 2023A), 0.5% (2023A to 2024E), 7.6% (2024E to 2025E) [4][8]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2024E: RMB 0.44 - 2025E: RMB 0.47 - Adjusted EPS forecast for 2024 increased by 15% [7][10]. - Valuation Metrics: - A-shares trading at 16x/15x P/E for 2024E/2025E - H-shares trading at 9x/8x P/E for 2024E/2025E [7][14]. Development Trends - The demand for train sets is expected to continue to rise, supported by increased railway passenger traffic and ongoing bidding for new train sets [6]. - Maintenance revenue for train sets is projected to grow as more vehicles enter advanced maintenance stages [6].