2024年一季报点评：自营承压拖累整体业绩，期待整合进程加速推进

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Guolian Securities [1] Core Views - Guolian Securities reported a significant decline in Q1 2024, with total revenue of 173 million yuan, down 74.44% year-on-year, and a net loss attributable to shareholders of 219 million yuan, reversing from profit in Q1 2023 [3][4] - The company is planning to acquire control of Minsheng Securities, marking the start of a formal integration process [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the self-operated business faced substantial pressure, with revenues dropping to -150 million yuan, a significant decrease from 373 million yuan in Q1 2023 [3] - Net interest income turned negative, falling 149% year-on-year to -27 million yuan due to increased financing scale and reduced disposal of other debt investments [3] - Brokerage business revenue decreased by 3% to 108 million yuan, attributed to a decline in commission rates [3] - Investment banking revenue fell 13% to 78 million yuan due to regulatory restrictions on IPOs and refinancing [3] - Asset management revenue surged by 350% to 143 million yuan, primarily due to the consolidation of Guolian Fund [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings forecast for 2024-2026 has been revised downwards, with net profits expected to be 403 million yuan, 840 million yuan, and 987 million yuan respectively, reflecting a growth rate of -40.01%, 108.45%, and 17.52% [4] - The corresponding EPS for the same period is projected to be 0.11 yuan, 0.24 yuan, and 0.28 yuan [4] - The current market capitalization corresponds to a PB valuation of 1.65, 1.45, and 1.41 times for 2024-2026 [4]