Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [1][5] Core Views - 1Q24 performance remains under pressure with revenue of 3.623 billion yuan, down 18.29% YoY, and net profit attributable to the parent company of -79 million yuan, down 147.81% YoY [3] - The company's 2023 sales volume increased by over 20% YoY, with a production capacity of 2.1 million tons/year of polyester bottle chips [4] - The company is actively optimizing its new material business layout, including PETG projects, thermoplastic composite projects, PET foam projects, and rPET projects [9] - The polyester bottle chip industry is expected to face continued pressure in 2024 due to new capacity additions, with profitability gradually recovering in 2025-2026 [8] Financial Performance - 2023 revenue was 17.225 billion yuan, down 0.59% YoY, with net profit attributable to the parent company of 381 million yuan, down 53.73% YoY [24] - The company's 2023 polyester bottle chip production was 2.1748 million tons, up 8.53% YoY, and sales volume was 2.4361 million tons, up 20.95% YoY [10] - The company's 2024-2026 EPS is forecasted to be 0.20, 0.26, and 0.32 yuan, respectively, with a 2024 BPS of 5.01 yuan [5] Industry Analysis - The polyester bottle chip industry experienced a slowdown in export growth in 2023, with domestic export volume increasing by 7.3% YoY to 4.85 million tons [24] - Global polyester bottle chip capacity increased by 5.12 million tons in 2023, with China accounting for 4.3 million tons of new capacity [24] - The domestic average processing fee for polyester bottle chips in 2023 was 775 yuan/ton, down 49% YoY [24] Valuation and Forecast - The company's reasonable value range is estimated at 9.20-9.60 yuan, based on a 2024 PE of 46-48x and a PB of 1.8-1.9x [5] - The company's 2024-2026 revenue is forecasted to be 17.024 billion, 17.239 billion, and 17.464 billion yuan, respectively [20] - The company's 2024-2026 net profit is forecasted to be 292 million, 385 million, and 480 million yuan, respectively [20] Business Segments - The polyester bottle chip segment is expected to generate revenue of 16.295 billion, 16.113 billion, and 16.226 billion yuan in 2024-2026, with gross margins of 2.9%, 3.6%, and 4.2%, respectively [33] - Other business segments are expected to generate revenue of 930 million, 1.023 billion, and 1.125 billion yuan in 2024-2026, with gross margins of 13.5% [33]
公司年报点评：产销稳定增长，行业景气回落