全年业绩高位回落，Q4景气改善显著

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company's full-year performance in 2023 showed a significant decline, with revenue decreasing by 12.14% YoY to RMB 20.621 billion and net profit attributable to the parent company dropping by 31.58% YoY to RMB 2.488 billion [1][4] - However, Q4 2023 saw a notable improvement, with revenue increasing by 10.11% YoY to RMB 6.390 billion and net profit attributable to the parent company rising by 18.69% YoY to RMB 823 million [1][4] - The surge in cross-border e-commerce and the peak shopping season (Black Friday and Christmas) drove air freight prices higher, leading to a significant release of profitability in the air cargo business [1][4] Business Performance Breakdown Air Freight - Air express revenue decreased by 31.37% YoY, with gross profit down by 51.78% YoY [4] - Despite a recovery in belly cargo capacity, the company's full freighter fleet efficiency improved, with daily utilization increasing by 12.85% to 12.56 hours [4] - The company operated 14 B777 freighters, achieving a high load factor of 83.12% [4] Ground Services - Ground service revenue increased slightly by 0.55% YoY, with gross profit surging by 119.87% YoY [4] - The company handled 53.6% of cargo at Shanghai's two airports, with cargo processing volume up by 9.04% YoY [4] - Gross margin for ground services recovered rapidly to 40.48% [4] Integrated Logistics Solutions - Revenue from integrated logistics solutions grew by 16.74% YoY, driven by a 71.71% increase in cross-border e-commerce solutions to RMB 4.698 billion [4] - The company expanded its fresh cold chain and customized logistics services [4] Outlook - Air freight demand is expected to remain stable or increase slightly in 2024, with limited supply growth for wide-body freighters [5] - Long-term contract prices are expected to rise more than anticipated, and the Middle East situation may further push up freight rates [1][5] - The company is advancing projects such as the second phase of Pudong Airport West Cargo Terminal (annual handling capacity of 300,000 tons) and the Pudong Airport Smart Cargo Terminal (annual handling capacity of 600,000 tons) [5] - The company is also actively promoting the construction of its South China operation base [5] Financial Forecasts - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach RMB 3.23 billion, RMB 3.77 billion, and RMB 4.33 billion in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5] - The corresponding P/E ratios are 9.1X, 7.8X, and 6.8X [5]