Headman(SH:688577) Southwest Securities·2024-05-06 01:32Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the company [1][3]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 660 million yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 50.7% to 30 million yuan. In Q1 2024, revenue was 170 million yuan, up 9.7% year-on-year, but net profit fell by 70.1% to 3 million yuan [1][2][15]. - The company experienced a slight increase in expense ratio in 2023, which was 23.8%, up 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increases in sales, R&D, and financial expense ratios. The net profit margin for 2023 was 4.5%, down 4.8 percentage points, mainly due to a decline in gross margin [2][15]. - The report forecasts net profits for 2024-2026 to be 38 million, 51 million, and 69 million yuan respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of 33% for net profit over the next three years [3][4]. Financial Summary - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 660 million yuan with a growth rate of 5.16%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 29.44 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 50.67% [4]. - The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 731 million, 863 million, and 1,018 million yuan, with growth rates of 10.12%, 18.11%, and 17.96% respectively [4][31]. - The report indicates that the company's gross margin for 2023 was 26.8%, down 5.1 percentage points year-on-year, and for Q1 2024, it was 23.4%, down 4.5 percentage points [15][16]. Business Strategy and Market Outlook - The company is focusing on high-end CNC lathe strategies, with expectations of marginal improvement in the high-end lathe market as the domestic cycle begins to recover. Sales growth rates for 2024-2026 are projected at 8%, 16%, and 14% respectively [7]. - The company is also promoting parallel composite processing centers, anticipating significant sales growth with projected increases of 100%, 50%, and 50% for the same period [8]. - The report highlights that the company is well-positioned to benefit from the domestic high-end CNC lathe market's low localization rate and the vast overseas market, alongside emerging industries like new energy vehicles and humanoid robots [16].