CMES(SH:601872) Southwest Securities·2024-05-06 01:32Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][3]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 25.88 billion yuan in 2023, a decrease of 12.9% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.84 billion yuan, down 4.9% year-on-year. In Q1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 6.25 billion yuan, an increase of 6.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.38 billion yuan, up 22.6% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company has a diversified business model that includes oil, bulk, gas, and vehicle transportation, which provides resilience and steady growth across cycles. The revenue breakdown for 2023 shows that oil transportation accounted for 37.4%, bulk transportation 27.5%, container transportation 21.4%, and roll-on/roll-off transportation 7.6% [2][3]. - Global shipping demand is expected to grow due to changes in trade structure, with the global shipping trade volume increasing by 3% to 12.4 billion tons in 2023. The average shipping distance has also risen, leading to a significant increase in ton-mile trade [2][3]. - The report forecasts a slowdown in global shipping capacity growth over the next 2-3 years, with nominal capacity growth expected to decline to 2.5% and 1.9% in 2024 and 2025, respectively. The effective supply of shipping capacity is expected to be lower than nominal supply due to aging fleets and stricter environmental regulations [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported a revenue of 25.88 billion yuan and a net profit of 4.84 billion yuan. For 2024, the projected net profits are 6.95 billion yuan, 7.61 billion yuan, and 8.56 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with EPS of 0.85 yuan, 0.93 yuan, and 1.05 yuan [3][11]. - The company plans to distribute cash dividends amounting to no more than 50% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the current period [2]. Business Segments - The oil transportation segment generated 9.67 billion yuan in revenue in 2023, while bulk transportation generated 7.11 billion yuan, container transportation 5.54 billion yuan, and roll-on/roll-off transportation 1.96 billion yuan [10][11]. - The report anticipates that the average TCE (Time Charter Equivalent) for oil transportation will be 52,000 USD/day, and for bulk transportation, it will be 19,000 USD/day in 2024 [9][10]. Market Outlook - The report indicates that geopolitical factors, climate issues, and unexpected events may continue to impact the stability of the shipping supply chain. However, the overall outlook for the shipping industry remains positive due to demand recovery and controlled supply growth [3][9].