2023年年报点评：水电稳定&火电弹性持续，风光放量加速

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 56.7 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 12.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.71 billion yuan, up 64.3% year-on-year [2] - In Q1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 14.1 billion yuan, a growth of 6.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.04 billion yuan, an increase of 26.1% year-on-year [2] - The company's thermal power business saw a revenue of 22.9 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 13.1%, with a total power generation of 54.46 billion kWh, up 15.3% year-on-year [2] - The hydropower segment generated a revenue of 25.6 billion yuan in 2023, a growth of 7.6%, despite a decrease in power generation due to poor water inflow [2] - The wind and solar segments reported revenues of 2.88 billion yuan and 1.68 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year increases of 22.3% and 32.5% [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a total revenue of 56.71 billion yuan and a net profit of 6.71 billion yuan, with projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 expected to be 64.63 billion yuan, 69.94 billion yuan, and 74.19 billion yuan respectively [4][10] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 1.06 yuan, 1.20 yuan, and 1.30 yuan respectively [4][10] Business Segments - Thermal Power: Revenue of 22.9 billion yuan in 2023, with a significant increase in power generation hours due to lower coal prices [2] - Hydropower: Revenue of 25.6 billion yuan in 2023, with average on-grid electricity prices increasing by 10.3% despite a decrease in power generation [2] - Wind and Solar: Combined revenue of 4.68 billion yuan in 2023, with substantial increases in installed capacity and power generation [3] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with net profits projected to reach 7.91 billion yuan in 2024 and 8.93 billion yuan in 2025 [4][10] - The average on-grid electricity prices for hydropower are expected to stabilize, while thermal power performance is anticipated to benefit from ongoing low coal prices [2][3]