KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Guoxin Securities·2024-05-06 01:33Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guizhou Moutai (600519.SH) is "Buy" [2][5][11]. Core Views - In Q1 2024, Guizhou Moutai achieved a total revenue of 46.48 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 18.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 24.07 billion yuan, up 15.7% year-on-year [2][8]. - The revenue growth is attributed to the price increase from the previous year, double-digit growth in sales volume, and slight improvements in product mix [2][9]. - The company expects to maintain a revenue growth target of 15% for the full year 2024, supported by various growth tools including price increases and new product launches [10][11]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - 2024E Revenue: 173.92 billion yuan (+15.5% YoY) - 2025E Revenue: 199.89 billion yuan (+14.9% YoY) - 2026E Revenue: 223.81 billion yuan (+12.0% YoY) - 2024E Net Profit: 87.45 billion yuan (+17.0% YoY) - 2025E Net Profit: 101.52 billion yuan (+16.1% YoY) - 2026E Net Profit: 114.36 billion yuan (+12.6% YoY) [3][11]. - Key Financial Ratios: - PE Ratios: 24.6 for 2024E, 21.2 for 2025E, and 18.8 for 2026E [3][11]. - ROE: Expected to increase from 34.7% in 2023 to 39.2% in 2024 [3][11]. Revenue Breakdown - In Q1 2024, Moutai liquor revenue was 39.71 billion yuan, up 17.8% YoY, while series liquor revenue was 5.94 billion yuan, up 18.4% YoY [2][9]. - The revenue from agency/direct sales channels was 26.32 billion yuan and 19.32 billion yuan, reflecting increases of 25.8% and 8.5% YoY, respectively [9]. Cash Flow and Contract Liabilities - As of the end of Q1, the company had a contract liability balance of approximately 9.523 billion yuan, up 14.3% YoY, indicating a faster cash collection pace compared to the previous year [10]. - The net cash flow from operating activities increased by 75% YoY, attributed to an increase in deposits with the central bank and interbank funds [10].