CBC(SH:600132) Guotai Junan Securities·2024-05-06 01:33Investment Rating - The investment rating for Chongqing Beer is "Buy" with a target price of 84.39 CNY, maintaining the previous rating of "Buy" [1][4]. Core Views - The report highlights that the company's performance exceeded expectations, indicating a recovery trend with declining costs. The revenue and profit for Q1 2024 showed significant growth, driven by an increase in beer prices and a reduction in costs [1][4]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In Q1 2024, Chongqing Beer achieved a revenue of 4.29 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%. The net profit reached 450 million CNY, up by 16.0% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 20.9% [1][4]. - The report notes that the increase in beer prices and the reduction in costs were greater than expected, contributing to the positive performance [1][4]. Financial Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected to be 2.98 CNY, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7% from 2024 to 2026. The target price is based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 28 times [1][4]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 15.68 billion CNY in 2024 to 17.45 billion CNY in 2026, with net profit increasing from 1.44 billion CNY to 1.66 billion CNY over the same period [1][4]. Market Position - Chongqing Beer is recognized as one of the top ten beer groups in China and has maintained a strong market presence in the southwest region, with annual beer sales nearing 100 million kiloliters [1][4]. - The company has a solid financial position, with a total market capitalization of 34.06 billion CNY and a current price range of 53.96 to 102.65 CNY over the past year [1][4]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a comparison of valuation metrics with peers, indicating that Chongqing Beer has a PE ratio of 25.48 for 2023, which is competitive within the industry [7][4]. - The average PE ratio for comparable companies is noted to be around 28.3 for 2023, suggesting that Chongqing Beer is positioned favorably in terms of valuation [7][4].