美的集团2024Q1季报点评：业绩符合预期，现金流表现强劲

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Midea Group, with a target price raised to 84.96 CNY from the previous 76.79 CNY [4][20]. Core Views - Midea Group's Q1 2024 performance met expectations, with revenue growth driven by strong cash flow and improved profitability. The company is expected to maintain a solid growth trajectory in the coming years [2][20]. Summary by Sections 1. Performance Overview - In Q1 2024, Midea Group achieved revenue of 106.5 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 9.0 billion CNY, up 11.9% year-on-year, while the adjusted net profit was 9.24 billion CNY, reflecting a 20.4% increase [15]. 2. Revenue Growth - The C-end business saw a revenue increase of 11% year-on-year, while the B-end business grew by 9%. The growth in C-end revenue was primarily driven by exports, with air conditioning sales expected to grow by 5-10% domestically and double-digit growth in exports. The company invested 3 billion CNY in Q1 2024 to accelerate the development of its overseas brand business, resulting in a 60% year-on-year increase in overseas e-commerce sales [16]. 3. Profitability Improvement - Midea Group's gross margin improved to 27.58%, an increase of 3.25 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin was 8.49%, up 0.06 percentage points. The improvement in gross margin was attributed to structural upgrades and favorable currency exchange rates impacting overseas business [17]. 4. Cash Flow and Financial Position - As of Q1 2024, Midea Group's cash and cash equivalents, along with trading financial assets, totaled 97.932 billion CNY, a 17.33% increase from the end of 2023. The net cash flow from operating activities for 2023 was 13.929 billion CNY, reflecting a 50.22% year-on-year increase [19]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report forecasts net profits for Midea Group for 2024-2026 to be 37.02 billion CNY, 39.88 billion CNY, and 43.26 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 5.31 CNY, 5.72 CNY, and 6.20 CNY. The report suggests a valuation of 16x PE for 2024 [20].