货量有所扰动，业绩略低于预期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company's 2023 revenue was RMB 810.2 billion, a 7.0% YoY increase, with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 119.3 billion, up 6.6% YoY [3] - In Q1 2024, revenue declined by 7.9% YoY to RMB 182.7 billion, and net profit attributable to shareholders dropped 16.7% YoY to RMB 30.5 billion [3] - The company's 2023 freight volume increased by 7.3% YoY to 726 million tons, while passenger volume surged 111.5% YoY to 42.84 million passengers [4] - Q1 2024 freight volume was impacted by stricter coal safety inspections in Shanxi, leading to a 6.0% YoY decline in core line volume [4] - Operating costs rose 6.0% YoY in 2023, driven by increased passenger-related costs and employee compensation [5] - The company revised its 2024-2025 profit forecasts downward by 18.4% and 17.2%, respectively, due to freight volume pressure and potential tariff reductions [6] Financial Performance - 2023 operating income: RMB 810.2 billion, up 7.0% YoY [3] - 2023 net profit attributable to shareholders: RMB 119.3 billion, up 6.6% YoY [3] - Q1 2024 operating income: RMB 182.7 billion, down 7.9% YoY [3] - Q1 2024 net profit attributable to shareholders: RMB 30.5 billion, down 16.7% YoY [3] - 2023 freight revenue: RMB 612.4 billion, up 0.8% YoY [4] - 2023 passenger revenue: RMB 89.2 billion, up 119.0% YoY [4] - 2023 operating costs: RMB 642.8 billion, up 6.0% YoY [5] - Q1 2024 operating costs: RMB 143.9 billion, down 3.0% YoY [5] Forecasts and Projections - 2024 revenue forecast: RMB 808.64 billion, down 0.19% YoY [8] - 2025 revenue forecast: RMB 826.88 billion, up 2.26% YoY [8] - 2026 revenue forecast: RMB 843.03 billion, up 1.95% YoY [8] - 2024 net profit attributable to shareholders forecast: RMB 111.73 billion, down 6.35% YoY [8] - 2025 net profit attributable to shareholders forecast: RMB 114.04 billion, up 2.06% YoY [8] - 2026 net profit attributable to shareholders forecast: RMB 115.49 billion, up 1.28% YoY [8] - 2024-2025 dividend payout ratio: at least 55%, lower than previous levels [6] Key Financial Ratios - 2023 P/E ratio: 10.19x [8] - 2024 P/E ratio: 10.88x [8] - 2025 P/E ratio: 10.66x [8] - 2026 P/E ratio: 10.53x [8] - 2023 P/B ratio: 0.88x [8] - 2024 P/B ratio: 0.74x [8] - 2025 P/B ratio: 0.72x [8] - 2026 P/B ratio: 0.69x [8] - 2023 ROE: 8.7% [15] - 2024 ROE: 6.8% [15] - 2025 ROE: 6.7% [15] - 2026 ROE: 6.6% [15]