Kouzijiao(SH:603589) Southwest Securities·2024-05-06 02:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 5.96 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.1%, and a net profit of 1.72 billion yuan, up 11.0% year-on-year. In Q4 2023, revenue was 1.52 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, and net profit was 370 million yuan, up 7.0% year-on-year. For Q1 2024, revenue reached 1.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 11.1%, and net profit was 590 million yuan, up 10.0% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations [2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company’s revenue from high-end, mid-range, and low-end liquor was 5.68 billion yuan (+16.6%), 80 million yuan (-19.8%), and 90 million yuan (+0.7%) respectively. Overall sales volume and price per ton increased by 7.4% and 7.6% respectively. The company plans to launch new products to enhance product structure [2][3] - For Q1 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 76.5%, with a net profit margin of 33.3%. The cash flow remains stable, with cash receipts of 1.4 billion yuan, up 15.5% year-on-year [2][3] Market and Product Strategy - The company is positioned to benefit from the upgrading of the Anhui liquor industry, with a focus on high-end products. The company aims to double sales volume and significantly increase the proportion of mid-to-high-end products in its portfolio by 2024 [2][3] - The company plans to enhance brand influence and market presence through strategic marketing and product launches, particularly focusing on the "Jian" series [2][3] Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are projected to be 2.87 yuan, 3.33 yuan, and 3.83 yuan respectively, with corresponding dynamic price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 15, 13, and 11. The company is expected to maintain a high return on equity (ROE) of 18.94% in 2024 [2][3][10]