CBC(SH:600132) Guoxin Securities·2024-05-06 02:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for Chongqing Beer (600132.SH) is "Buy" [5][8]. Core Views - In Q1 2024, Chongqing Beer achieved a total revenue of 4.293 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.16%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 452 million yuan, up 16.78% year-on-year [1][6]. - The company aims for a mid to high single-digit revenue growth target for 2024, leveraging its strong product portfolio and brand recognition [2][7]. - The company is focusing on restoring the growth momentum of its Ussu brand while maintaining the growth of its premium brands like Lebao and Carlsberg [2][7]. Financial Performance Summary - Q1 2024 beer business revenue was 4.18 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, with sales volume at 866,800 hectoliters, up 5.2% year-on-year [1][6]. - The average selling price of beer in Q1 2024 was 4,820 yuan per hectoliter, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.3% [1][6]. - The gross profit margin increased by 2.7 percentage points year-on-year, driven by lower costs and improved product mix [1][6]. - The company expects to see increased depreciation and amortization costs with the upcoming production start of its Foshan factory [1][6]. Earnings Forecast - The revenue forecast for 2024-2026 is 15.709 billion yuan, 16.708 billion yuan, and 17.763 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.0%, 6.4%, and 6.3% respectively [2][7]. - The net profit forecast for the same period is 1.463 billion yuan, 1.587 billion yuan, and 1.727 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.4%, 8.5%, and 8.9% respectively [2][7]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 23 and 21 times for 2024 and 2025 respectively [2][7].