转型以十年为刻度，从资源品走向运营商

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [5]. Core Views - The company is transitioning from a resource-based model to an operator model over a decade, facing challenges from the shift from conventional rail to high-speed rail, which has led to a decline in profitability [2][7]. - The company has begun to exit conventional rail operations, accelerating the depreciation of conventional rail vehicles and increasing the proportion of light asset operations, which is expected to lead to a recovery in profitability [6][21]. - The integration of the company's lines into the high-speed rail network presents new opportunities, with expectations for significant growth in high-speed rail operations by around 2027 [2][6]. Summary by Sections Historical Context and Transformation - The company, established in 1984, has evolved through various phases, becoming a key player in China's railway reform and transitioning from conventional rail to high-speed rail operations [20][21]. - The company has faced significant challenges due to the rapid growth of high-speed rail, which has absorbed demand and reduced the scale of conventional rail operations [41][47]. Financial Performance and Projections - The company’s projected profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are estimated at 1.4 billion, 1.6 billion, and 1.8 billion respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 17x, 15x, and 13x [7]. - The company’s asset scale is approximately 37 billion, with liabilities around 10 billion, indicating a stable asset base but increasing liabilities primarily due to project payables [21][22]. High-Speed Rail Operations - The company has been providing entrusted operation services for high-speed rail lines in Guangdong since 2011 and has expanded its operations to include cross-border high-speed rail services to Hong Kong, which are expected to be significant revenue and profit growth points [6][20]. - The pricing model for cross-border high-speed rail services is based on a segmented charging principle, with domestic segment passenger load factors significantly impacting profitability [6][16]. Market Dynamics - The shift towards high-speed rail has resulted in a decline in passenger volume for conventional rail stations, with the company’s conventional rail passenger volume stagnating while high-speed rail passenger volume continues to grow [6][47]. - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing integration of its services into the broader high-speed rail network, enhancing operational efficiency and revenue potential [6][20].