YTO(600233) 广发证券·2024-05-06 02:02Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price of 18.75 CNY per share, reflecting a 15x PE valuation for 2024 [4][26]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 57.684 billion CNY in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 7.74%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.723 billion CNY, down 5.03% year-on-year [2][12]. - The company maintained a steady market share increase, reaching 16.05% in 2023, up 0.25 percentage points from the previous year, and completed a business volume of 21.204 billion parcels, a 21.31% increase year-on-year [2][15]. - The company has effectively controlled costs, with a single parcel transportation cost of 0.46 CNY, down 9.67% year-on-year, and a center operation cost of 0.29 CNY, down 5.37% year-on-year [2][16]. Summary by Sections Business Overview - The company operates primarily in the mid-to-low-end express delivery market, focusing on cost-effective services for low-value goods [10]. - It employs a franchise model, allowing for rapid expansion and cost efficiency, while managing core resources through self-operated hubs [11]. Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported a net cash flow of 1.732 billion CNY, benefiting from stable profits and controlled capital expenditures [20][22]. - The forecast for 2024-2026 indicates expected revenues of 64.723 billion CNY, 72.190 billion CNY, and 78.689 billion CNY, with corresponding net profits of 4.307 billion CNY, 4.964 billion CNY, and 5.646 billion CNY [25][26]. Profitability Forecast - The company is projected to maintain a steady growth trajectory, with EPS estimates of 1.25 CNY, 1.44 CNY, and 1.64 CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [23][25]. - The gross margin for the express business is expected to improve slightly, reaching 10.6% in 2024 and 11.4% by 2026 [24][25].