Ginlong Technologies(300763) 光大证券·2024-05-06 02:18Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 53.55 CNY, indicating a positive outlook for the stock over the next 6-12 months [3]. Core Views - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in performance throughout 2024, driven by the improvement in inventory levels in Europe and increased domestic demand for photovoltaic installations [2][3]. - The report highlights a significant decline in net profit for Q1 2024, attributed to inventory pressures in the European market and seasonal factors affecting domestic sales [2]. - The company’s revenue from household photovoltaic systems and new energy power generation has shown substantial growth, indicating strong demand in these segments [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 6.1 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, but net profit decreased by 26% to 780 million CNY [1]. - For Q1 2024, revenue was 1.4 billion CNY, down 15.6% year-on-year, with net profit plummeting 94% to 20 million CNY [1][2]. Business Segments - The energy storage inverter business saw a significant revenue drop of 59% in 2023, totaling 430 million CNY, primarily due to inventory backlogs in Europe [2]. - The grid-connected inverter business generated 4.1 billion CNY in revenue, a slight increase of 1.53%, but faced margin pressure with a gross margin of 22% [2]. - The household photovoltaic system segment reported a remarkable revenue growth of 106%, reaching 1.2 billion CNY, with a gross margin of 60% [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2024-2026 has been revised downwards, with expected net profits of 900 million CNY, 1 billion CNY, and 1.3 billion CNY respectively, reflecting a 63% and 66% downward adjustment for 2024 and 2025 [2][3]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 25, 21, and 17 for the years 2024-2026 [2].